From Factors to Actors: Enhancing the Reliability of CBRN Analysis

Considerable debate in recent years among researchers and policymakers has focused on the growing potential of terrorist groups to acquire and use chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) materials in attacks. The reliability of analyses of CBRN events is an important concern at two levels: the data on which analyses are based, and the quantitative modeling of those data. At each of these levels, recently developed procedures that we highlight in this article allow for increased nuance in threat assessment and aid in the identification of multiple threat scenarios.